Chinese Dead Hangs

Team Competition Outlook

Because I was thinking about what countries would likely get the full team berths come 2012.

Locks:

U.S.A.*

China*

Russia*

Romania*

Likely:

Great Britain*

Australia*

Japan*

Italy*

On The Bubble:

Canada

Germany

France

Spain

Brazil

 

*Will likely be in the team final

 

Looking At The U.S. in 2011-12

2011 seniors (from TAAF):

Rachel Daum, Stars
Hallie Mossett, West Coast
Megan Jimenez, Precision
Claire Boyce, Texas Dreams
Sabrina Vega, Dynamic
Jordyn Weiber, Geddart's
Pua Hall, KCDG
Grace McLaughlin, WOGA
McKenzie Wofford, WOGA
McKayla Maroney, AOGC
Gabrielle Douglas, formerly Excalibur, now Chow's

2012 seniors:

Kennedy Baker, Texas Dreams
Brenna Dowell, GAGE (?)
Kyla Ross, Gym-Max
Sarah Finnegan, GAGE (?)
Elizabeth Price, Parkettes
Keely McNeer, Chow's

 Unknown variables:

Shawn Johnson, Chow's
Ivana Hong, WOGA
Nastia Liukin, WOGA
Chellsie Memmel, M&M
Sophina DeJesus, SCEGA
Samantha Shapiro, AOGC
Mattie Larson, AOGC
Kamerin Moore, Geddart's

Wieber is the obvious team pick: she has been developing difficulty across the board and improving her execution. She has a potential 6.7 D-score on UB, an Amanar, and comparable difficulty on FX and BB, with the consistency to boot. Problem is, she has been plagued by injuries as of late. 2010 U.S. Championships were disasterous after coming out of a year resting a hamstring injury.

McKayla Maroney has impressed many with her flawless Amanar. Even the die-hard Russian/Komova fans have conceded Maroney's vault is one of the best. A consistent, high-scoring vault will help the U.S. stack difficulty elsewhere while the U.S. struggles to find high UB scores. So far, however, Maroney seems to be a one-event gymnast. This may be okay in Tokyo, but come London where the team number has been cut down from 6 to 5, a one-event gymnast no longer has a place (unless she's the American He Kexin).

McKenzie Wofford, Gabrielle Douglas, Kyla Ross, and Kennedy Baker seem to be the ones upcoming that have the potential to add to the U.S. UB total. Wofford has the advantage of being a Valeri Liukin pupil and will likely learn how to codewhore to the best of her abilities, especially if she can learn L-grip. A move to Chow's may hinder Douglas' growth on UB, but I would love to be proven wrong. Kyla Ross has the lines and the flow, but Gym-Max hasn't produced anything significant on bars (although it looks like Howie may have finally dumped the German giant skills that was the gym's signature).

This is looking to be the comeback quad with Alicia Sacramone making a magnificent comeback to become VT World Champion and she's working on a FX routine for next year. Johnson's comeback looks to be a serious one after suffering an ACL tear. Liukin is looking to make her own return, which makes most American fans delirously happy because if Liukin can get back to her former glory on UB and have a passable BB routine, she has a spot on both the Tokyo and London teams.

Mattie Larson and Samatha Shapiro...hmm. Larson's ill-timed fall at the World Championships team finals may have been the nail in her elite career's coffin. After two years out with ankle injuries, she was looking great at Classics and Nationals, so much so that she was 2nd all-around behind Bross. Unfortunately, her well-known inconsistency came into play at the worst time and she ended up accruing an extremely large deduction from her FX routine with a fall on her double pike and missing an EGR due to balking on her punch-front layout. This killed the U.S. chance for gold after Russia was essentially handing them the medal. Samantha Shapiro has suffered so many injuries that it doesn't seem worth it for her to continue hurting her body for such a slim chance. Her chances might have been higher with an excellent UB set that she's capable of, but she continually misses handstands and all the perfect execution in the world wouldn't save her from the deductions piling up.

Kamerin Moore and Chellsie Memmel are done with elite gymnastics, if not the sport entirely, I think. Nothing saying until an official retirement announcement has been made. Sophina DeJesus was out with a back injury, but can hopefully return. However, as exciting her FX tends to be, I don't know where else she could help the U.S. and the U.S. does have plenty of FX workers available.

So far, a possible 2011 lineup could be:

VT: Sacramone/Maroney/Wieber/Bross (a lineup of two Amanars and a Rudi is too delicious to pass up)

UB: Wieber/Bross/Liukin

BB: Sacramone/Wieber/Bross/Liukin/Johnson/Raisman

FX: Sacramone/Wieber/Johnson/Bross/Raisman

That's a pretty bad-ass lineup. The U.S. could easily lead on VT and FX and possibly BB (Romania however seems to be solid on that event). Russia and China have the lead on UB, but have weaknesses on FX and VT and both teams have consistency issues. While the U.S. cannot and should not rely on Russia and China faltering, as likely as it may be, they can certainly still be in the running for gold

I'm quite looking forward to 2011 and 2012. Finally the medal podium will see some real competition with China, Russia, the U.S.A., and Romania all contenders.